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The benefit of using Cincinnati is that you save better teams for future weeks, which could be important in a larger pool.īIG NEWS: Before we get to the picks, we're happy to announce that we just published our first-ever e-book, Survivor Pool Strategy: What It Takes To Win. The immediate expected value is moderate. If you are going to use Cincinnati, now is the time to use them, as they have win odds over 75 percent for likely the only time this year. The Bengals have one big factor going for them this week: Future value, or lack thereof. Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerĬincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee also has moderate future value - similar to New Orleans, less than Buffalo and Kansas City, and more than Cincinnati. Unless the odds for all the top picks change, Tennessee will have the lowest expected value of the five most popular picks this week.

The other non-Bills options also have similar win odds. Buffalo, the most popular pick, has win odds around 90 percent, reducing the likelihood of benefiting from a Bills upset. With higher popularity, though, Tennessees's value is reduced. That puts them in the same safety tier as the rest of the Buffalo alternatives.

The Titans, like the other options listed here besides Buffalo, are currently favored by just over a touchdown. MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 4 Pick 'em pool advice Early-week survival rates have been high through Week 3, so your survivor pool may last longer than usual this year. Whether it makes sense to save them or use them in this spot depends largely on how many other entries you have to beat (your current pool size) and how deep into the season you will need to go in order to win. If a large chunk of your pool uses the Bills now, they can't be heavily used in the future, increasing their value in those future weeks. However, they also are one of the most valuable teams to save for the future, as we project they will have six additional weeks with win odds of 75 percent or higher. Usually, high pick popularity noticeably reduces expected value, but the Bills have much greater win odds than any other team this week, which is a big plus. The Bills have the best win odds this week and also the highest expected value.

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It’s free right now, so download your copy here. It explains all the key elements of survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool-winning entries.

BIG NEWS: Before we get to the picks, we're happy to announce that we just published our first-ever e-book, Survivor Pool Strategy: What It Takes To Win.

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